By Francesco Guala.

As 82-year-old President Joe Biden’s term nears its end, the critical question emerges: will he run for re-election in 2024? This article delves into the economic policies, public opinion, and the age factor shaping this decision.

Biden’s Economic Policies:

Let’s examine what the Biden administration has done over the past three years: Certainly, Biden became president in a difficult time, when the Covid pandemic was peaking and the domestic economic situation was not at its best with unemployment at 6.2% _^[1]. The situation evolved in a rebound, accompanied by very high inflation, climaxing in July 2022 at 9.06% _^[2]. What has the Biden administration done to tackle these issues, and how did public opinion react? Biden’s economic policy, known as Bidenomics, is based on three pillars _^[3]: making smart public investments in America; empowering and educating workers to grow the middle class; promoting competition to lower costs and help entrepreneurs and small businesses thrive. To achieve these goals, the two most important pieces of law of his economic policy are:

• The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 included $1.9 trillion in economic rescue funds related to Covid-19.
• The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. The act aimed to reduce inflation and the deficit, and boost investments in national production and promote clean energy.

Despite the economic policies put in place by the Biden administration, the American people have faced a very difficult period due to many causes, including very high inflation (prices rose 17% since Biden took office _^[4]), and do not perceive economic policies as successful. Now, less than one year before elections, approval ratings have hit a low point of 40% _^[5].

Public Opinion: the age factor

The declining poll numbers find an ally in President Biden’s age. Numerous articles, including The Hill _^[6] and The Washington Post _^[7], contend that he should consider stepping aside, citing the substantial concern among Americans that 74% believe he is too old for a second term _^[8]. In a September column, David Ignatius of The Washington Post, expressed his view that neither Biden nor Vice President Harris should seek reelection _^[7]. Ignatius, while acknowledging the administration’s achievements, particularly the victory over Trump in 2020, believes that this is the moment when a sense of duty has been fulfilled. There is a prevailing sentiment that Biden has contributed what he could, and the time to make way for new leadership has come. Eugene R. Fidell, writing for The Hill, opines that Biden stepping aside would reflect both patriotism and optimism. As a self-described lifelong Democrat, Fidell does not endorse Biden for another term. Indeed, like other Democrats, he acknowledges Biden’s accomplishments, including managing economic challenges and foreign policy endeavors such as the Ukraine war, a growing preference emerges for a younger leader for the party in 2024. While the limits of Biden’s advanced age are evident in multiple instances of gaffes and verbal stumbles, his wealth of experience and strong relation with Congress complicate the decision to step aside.

Potential Successors:

Should President Biden choose not to pursue another term as the Democratic candidate, the question of his successor arises. According to the latest poll from FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris holds a low approval rating of 37.2% _^[9]. David Ignatius proposes Karen Bass and Gina Raimondo as potential alternatives _^[7], while others advocate for Gov. Whitmer of Michigan or Sen. Warnock of Georgia to assume leadership of the Democratic Party _^[10]. However, a change in direction so close to the elections could potentially cause more harm than benefit to the party. This is because “the money and energy that would be siphoned off into what would almost certainly be a battle royal involving a large field of candidates could be more usefully deployed on behalf of a Biden-Harris reelection campaign” _^[10].

As Biden’s term is coming to an end, his advanced age and low approval ratings suggest a change of leadership in the party, but with less than a year to go before the election, it may not be the right political choice. For 2024 everyone is expecting a remake of 2020: Biden vs. Trump; only time will tell us.

Edited by Justine Peries.

References

[1] “Unemployment rates lower in January 2021 in 33 states : The Economics Daily: U.S.” Bureau of Labor Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/opub/ted/2021/unemployment-rates-lower-in-january-2021-in-33-states.htm. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[2] “US Inflation Rate (I:USIR).” YCharts, https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_inflation_rate. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[3] “Bidenomics Is Working: The President’s Plan Grows the Economy from the Middle Out and Bottom Up—Not the Top Down.” The White House, 28 June 2023, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/06/28/bidenomics-is-working-the-presidents-plan-grows-the-economy-from-the-middle-out-and-bottom-up-not-the-top-down/. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[4] Antoni, EJ. ““Bidenomics” Is Unpopular for Good Reason.” The Heritage Foundation, 25 September 2023, https://www.heritage.org/markets-and-finance/commentary/bidenomics-unpopular-good-reason. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[5] Murray, Mark. “Poll: Biden’s standing hits new lows amid Israel-Hamas war.” NBC News, 19 November 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-bidens-standing-hits-new-lows-israel-hamas-war-rcna125251?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiossneakpeek&stream=top. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[6] Fidell, Eugene R. “Great job, Mr. President! Time to retire.” The Hill, 25 July 2023, https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/4116699-great-job-mr-president-time-to-retire/. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[7] Ignatius, David. “Opinion | President Biden should not run for reelection in 2024 – The Washington Post.” Washington Post, 12 September 2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/12/biden-trump-election-step-aside/. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[8] Langer, Gary. “Troubles for Biden: Not Just His Age.” Langer Research Associates, 20 September 2023, https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1230a3PresidentialPolitics.pdf. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[9] “Kamala Harris : Approval Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[10] Kilgore, Ed. “What Would 2024 Look Like for Democrats If Biden Retired?” Intelligencer, 12 February 2023, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/02/what-would-2024-look-like-for-democrats-if-biden-retired.html. Accessed 2 January 2024.

[Cover Image] Photo by Markus Spiske licensed under Unsplash