By Lorenzo Cappelletti.

With the primary ballot around the corner, American politics has been shaken by the latest updates concerning Donald Trump’s eligibility. On December 19, The Colorado Supreme Court ruled that the former President’s candidacy was prohibited on constitutional grounds _^[1]. The court’s decision referred to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, which bars “those who have engaged in insurrection” _^[2]. Specifically, it was Donald Trump’s conduct surrounding the attack on the U.S. Capitol building on January 6, 2021, that led to the historic ruling since no court ever disqualified a presidential candidate based on this clause.

On December 29, different procedures led to the same result in Maine. State law in the northeastern-most territory of the U.S. requires the Secretary of State to preside over ballot qualification challenges in a public hearing. Shenna Bellow upheld two challenges based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment _^[3]. “The record establishes that Mr. Trump, over the course of several months and culminating on January 6, 2021, used a false narrative of election fraud to inflame his supporters and direct them to the Capitol to prevent certification of the 2020 election and the peaceful transfer of power,” wrote the Secretary of State in her decision _^[3].

  This phenomenon took root right after the Capitol attack in 2021 when Republican presidential candidate Anthony Castro filed cases against Trump’s eligibility in 26 states _^[4]. Most cases have now been dismissed _^[4]; Colorado and Maine were the first decisions against the former President. In 14 states, however, cases are still pending. With most U.S. states casting their ballots for the presidential primary between March and April, the matter is becoming increasingly controversial _^[5]. What will be the implications of these two historical judgements?

Rulings’ implications

To this day, oddly, the decisions mentioned above have no direct impact on the primary ballot. Indeed, in both states, the effectiveness of the ruling has been paused. The Colorado Supreme Court put its judgement on hold until January 4, saying that any appeal before this date would automatically continue its pausing ^_[6]. The judges’ stance aims to let the U.S. Supreme Court weigh in on the matter.  

Moreover, on December 27, lawyers for the Colorado Republican party officially asked the nation’s highest court to overturn the decision. _^[6] On January 3, the former President did likewise. Therefore, Trump’s ineligibility in Colorado is now in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court, which, as it will be explained, will most probably rule in his favor. Election officials, hence, “will continue to be required to include President Trump’s name on the 2024 presidential primary ballot, until the receipt of any order or mandate from the U.S. Supreme Court,” as the state court noted _^[7].

Finally, Maine’s Secretary of State decision is also on hold until the state Superior Court makes a ruling _^[8]. The court is required to decide by January 17. Again, it is essential to remember that even if the judges were to confirm the ineligibility, Trump could still pause the decision by appealing to the national Supreme Court.

Future scenarios 

The effectiveness of the two state’s judgements will be delegated to the highest court in the federal judiciary. The U.S. Supreme Court has yet to set a timeline to take up the case. Many legal experts, however, are putting pressure on the highest court to weigh in, claiming that voters need guidance before the primary ballot. Richard L. Hasen, a law professor at the University of California, noted that “Republican primary voters deserve to know if the candidate they are considering supporting is eligible to run. Otherwise, they waste their votes on an ineligible candidate and raise the risk of the party nominating an ineligible candidate in the general election” _^[8].

  If the national court were to confirm Colorado’s ruling, Trump’s ineligibility would only apply to the state in the Mountain West. One could argue that the magnitude of the decision could unleash a ripple effect, with many other states ruling on the matter _^[9]. However, such a judgment is very improbable. Indeed, the U.S. Supreme Court includes six Republican and three Democratic appointees. In all likelihood, the Colorado Republican party’s appeal will be accepted, and Trump will be able to run. 

An interesting path toward resolving this case would be to look at Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr., who might want to avoid the appearance of partisanship (prejudice in favor of a particular cause or person). On this behalf, the court could explore all the paths leading to Trump’s non-exclusion in the state ballot without addressing whether he engaged in insurrection _^[8].

Edited by Justine Peries.

References

[1] Grumbach, Gary. “Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off state’s primary ballot for violating the U.S. Constitution.” NBC News, 19 December 2023, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/colorado-supreme-court-kicks-trump-states-2024-ballot-violating-us-con-rcna130484. Accessed 3 January 2024.

[2] “Fourteenth Amendment Section 3 | Constitution Annotated | Congress.gov | Library of Congress.” Constitution Annotated, https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/amendment-14/section-3/. Accessed 3 January 2024. 

[3] Murray, Isabella. “Maine secretary of state rules Trump ineligible for state’s 2024 primary ballot.” ABC News, 29 December 2023, https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/maine-secretary-state-rules-trump-ineligible-states-2024/story?id=105839393. Accessed 3 January 2024.

[4] Quinn, Melissa. “Trump’s eligibility for the ballot is being challenged under the 14th Amendment. Here are the notable cases.” CBS News, 30 December 2023, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-ballot-14th-amendment-section-3-2024-eligibility/. Accessed 3 January 2024.

[5] “Primary Election Dates.” U.S. Vote Foundation, https://www.usvotefoundation.org/primary-election-dates. Accessed 3 January 2024.

[6] Howe, Amy. “Colorado G.O.P. asks justices to review Trump ballot eligibility.” SCOTUSblog, 28 December 2023, https://www.scotusblog.com/2023/12/colorado-g-o-p-asks-justices-to-review-trump-ballot-eligibility/. Accessed 3 January 2024.

[7] Montellaro, Zach. “US Supreme Court officially asked to take up Trump’s 14th Amendment issue.” Politico, 28 December 2023, https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/colorado-gop-pushes-trump-14th-amendment-issue-before-supreme-court-00133269. Accessed 3 January 2024.

[8] Liptak, Adam. “How the Supreme Court May Rule on Trump’s Presidential Run.” The New York Times, 29 December 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/29/us/supreme-court-trump-election.html. Accessed 3 January 2024. 

[9] Hurley, Lawrence. “Supreme Court agrees to weigh whether Trump can be kicked off Colorado ballot.” NBC News, 5 January 2024, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/supreme-court/supreme-court-agrees-weigh-whether-trump-can-kicked-ballot-colorado-rcna132058. Accessed 6 January 2024.

[Cover Image] Photo by: Phung Touch. Licensed  by: Pexels.