By Louis Brugel.
The signing of the Outer Space Treaty in 1967 resulted in the prohibition of nuclear weapons and territorial claims in space. Nonetheless, the treaty does not ban the utilisation of conventional arms [1]. The state of global geopolitics is becoming increasingly turbulent because of the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as the looming possibility of a conflict in Taiwan. Consequently, major powers are investing in the advancement of technologies that could be used as weapons in space [2] [3]. The US, China, and Russia are at the forefront of this domain.
Entering the “third space age”
Control of the land and the seas is no longer sufficient to ensure security. In fact, success on Earth is now connected to primacy in space. Military systems are increasingly dependent on space systems. Moreover, in case of conflict, space devices may be used to destroy targets on Earth [4]. Some argue that the world is witnessing the emergence of a “third space age.” According to General John Shaw, the first space age corresponded to the Cold-War, during which powers used satellites to spy on their opponents and to communicate. The first space age was tied to the strategy of nuclear deterrence. In the second phase, the US became the dominant actor, and companies got increasingly engaged with television, communications, and GPS; the latter paved the way to long-distance drone operations. Space became an area for competition for military purposes and economic and commercial sovereignty [4]. Currently, the “third space age” refers to the introduction of space technology into people’s daily lives combined with the potentiality of direct confrontation in space [5]. It may be argued that countries are somewhat vulnerable in space; in fact, the country that targets a strategic satellite may, as a consequence, have the upper hand on Earth. Moreover, there is little protection for satellites and targeting them is made easier because their movements are predictable [3].
Chinese and Russian ambitions
The US increasingly worries about China’s ambition to surpass its domination beyond the atmosphere. The US places space at the heart of its strategy. US generals monitor the cosmos at Space Command in Colorado while so-called “Guardians” analyse missiles all over the world. The same people carefully monitor satellites’ launching and objects’ entry into the Earth’s atmosphere [3]. The importance the United States gives to space and its monitoring is symptomatic of the dangers that can come from beyond the atmosphere. In fact, in October 2023, Russia launched a new satellite: Cosmos 2570 that the US believes may be used for military application; notably the destruction of foreign satellites [6]. In 2019, President Trump announced the creation of a space force around the same time two Russian satellites that were following a US satellite were detected. This event fostered the development of fears on the American side that the Russian satellites would steal data or disturb sensors. There have been fears since 2013 that Russia is launching killing satellites into space [7]. Furthermore, Moscow launched anti-satellite weapons to destroy a USSR-era satellite in November 2021. Some believe Russia is warning the US by showing it can target devices in space. In addition, prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia spread a virus that “disabled the satellite-internet modems of some 50,000 European users, among them many Ukrainian military units.” [3] This helped destabilise the Ukrainian army in the wake of Russia’s invasion. Nonetheless, the Ukrainian army was able to reconnect thanks to Starlink satellites developed by SpaceX [8]. Such events represent the strategic importance of space in modern-day warfare.
US strategy
In this context, the US is working hard to maintain its superiority. To do so, Space Command has three missions: detecting, deterring, and defeating. Detection involves the analysis of 45,000 “odd objects,” among which less than 10,000 are actually operating satellites. It analyses orbits and shares data with allies to ensure it has eyes everywhere. To prepare for potential confrontations, the Pentagon is designing wargames with different scenarios ranging from North Korea launching a nuclear bomb in space to Pakistani terrorists utilising commercial satellites to hit India [3]. Nevertheless, if the US seeks to remain dominant in space, it should be cautious regarding its reliance on SpaceX. Indeed, this profit-driven private company does not necessarily seek the same interests as the US government [9].
One of the main issues with “Star Wars” is unpredictability. The emergence of potential conflicts in space is a novel concern for humankind, and there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the utilisation of existing technology for military purposes. Several technologies have dual capabilities, meaning they can be used for both civilian and military applications.
The question now is how nations can assess danger and thus avoid miscalculation [3].
Edited by Justine Peries.
References
[1] “The Outer Space Treaty.” United Nations Office for Outer-Space Affairs, www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/introouterspacetreaty.html.
[2] Robert, Anne-Cécile. “Tournant Historique.” Le Monde Diplomatique, Manière De Voir, 25 Jan. 2024, www.monde-diplomatique.fr/mav/192.
[3] La Guardia, Anton. “War in Space Is No Longer Science Fiction.” The Economist, 31 Jan. 2024, www.economist.com/international/2024/01/31/america-china-and-russia-are-locked-in-a-new-struggle-over-space.
[4] Roche, Nicolas. “Espace : Quels Enjeux Stratégiques, Quelles Menaces, Quelle Dissuasion ?” Revue Défense Nationale, vol. 791, 2015, pp. 99–105. https://doi.org/10.3917/rdna.791.0099.
[5] Shaw, Lt. Gen. John. “Welcome to the Third Space Age.” SpaceNews, 1 Sept. 2023, spacenews.com/op-ed-welcome-to-the-third-space-age.
[6] Nagar, Rohit. “Unraveling the Enigma: Russian Satellites Concealing a Space Arsenal? - SciFiz.” SciFiz, 28 Nov. 2023, scifiz.com/unraveling-the-enigma-russian-satellites-concealing-a-space-arsenal.
[7] Decourt, Rémy. “La Guerre Dans L’espace A-t-elle Déjà Commencé ?” Futura, 15 Feb. 2020, www.futura-sciences.com/sciences/actualites/militarisation-espace-guerre-espace-t-elle-deja-commence-79587.
[8] Berghe, Victor. “Starlink : Comment L’entreprise a Maintenu L’Ukraine En Ligne.” Les Numériques, 12 May 2022, www.lesnumeriques.com/fournisseur-acces-internet/starlink-comment-l-entreprise-a-maintenu-l-ukraine-en-ligne-n182791.html.
[9] Bendemra, Hamza. “NASA’s Reliance on Outsourcing Launches Causes a Dilemma for the Space Agency.” The Conversation, 3 July 2015, theconversation.com/nasas-reliance-on-outsourcing-launches-causes-a-dilemma-for-the-space-agency-44013.
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