By Taufeeq Khan Marcos.
What is happening in Pakistan?
Political context
In April 2022, the then Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, was removed from office following a no-confidence motion [1]. Pressed with corruption charges, Imran Khan was arrested in May 2023, sparking a series of nation-wide riots and protests led by members of his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI), and other supporters [2]. Soon after, however, Pakistan’s Supreme Court ruled that his arrest had been illegal and ordered his immediate release [3]. Later, in August of the same year, he was arrested once more on corruption charges, and a court in Islamabad sentenced him to jail and disqualified him from politics, leading to a second wave of unrest across the country [4]. While his sentence for corruption was eventually suspended, he remained in prison due to his connection to the political affair known as “Lettergate” or “Cypher Case”, in which state secrets were leaked [5]. Finally, in January 2024, the PTI was barred from participating in the upcoming elections by the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP), citing alleged irregularities in its intra-party elections conducted in December 2023 [6].
Elections results
In this context, the 2024 Pakistani general elections were held in February 2024. Following a highly contentious election with widespread violence, including several bomb attacks, and multiple allegations of poll rigging, the ECP announced that independent candidates had won 102 seats, of which 93 were supporters of Imran Khan’s party PTI. They were followed by two of Pakistan’s biggest and oldest parties, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz Party (PMLN) from the centre-right with 75 seats and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) from the centre-left with 54 seats [7] [8].
Deadlock and negotiations
Because Pakistan is a parliamentary democracy, a successful candidate needs to win at least 169 seats of the 336 to form a government. Furthermore, 70 of those seats are reserved for minorities (i.e., for women and non-Muslims) and are allotted by proportional representation to parties that obtain more than 5% of the votes. For this reason, if independent candidates wish to form a government, they must join a party [9]. This situation led to a political deadlock, as no party could form a majority government on their own, forcing them to seek other parties to form a coalition. After almost two weeks of negotiations, the PMLN and the PPP, along with other minority parties, reached a formal agreement to form a coalition government [10]. As part of the agreement, Shehbaz Sharif from the PMLN and younger brother of Nawaz Sharif (the longest-serving Prime Minister of Pakistan), will become the prime minister. Meanwhile, Asif Ali Zardari from the PPP and widower of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, will become the country’s president, a mostly ceremonial position that he previously held from 2008 to 2013 [11].
A new government formed
Securing 201 parliamentary votes, the newly formed parliament elected Shehbaz Sharif as its new prime minister [12]. Nevertheless, PTI supporters still claim that there was widespread vote rigging during the elections and that opposition forces used the government apparatus to crackdown on party supporters in the weeks before the elections [13]. Specifically, they blame the military, who since the creation of Pakistan, has been a driving force behind national politics, ruling either directly or through other political actors [14].
Edited by Justine Peries.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this presentation are solely the views of the author, and do not reflect the views of any institutional stances.
References
[2] Usman, Maria. “Pakistan riots over Imran Khan’s arrest continue as army deployed, 8 people killed in clashes.” CBS News, 10 May 2023, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pakistan-imran-khan-arrest-protests-deaths-army-deployed/. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[3] Fraser, Simon, and Caroline Davies. “Imran Khan: Pakistan’s Supreme Court rules arrest was illegal.” BBC, 11 May 2023, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-65561807. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[4] Ellis-Petersen, Hannah, and Shah Meer Baloch. “Imran Khan: former Pakistan prime minister sentenced to three years in jail.” The Guardian, 5 August 2023, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/05/former-pakistan-prime-minister-imran-khan-jailed-for-three-years. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[5] Hussain, Abid. “Despite bail order, Imran Khan remains in jail over ‘cypher case.’” Al Jazeera, 29 August 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/29/despite-bail-order-imran-khan-remains-in-jail-over-cypher-case. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[6] Dawn. “’Huge blow to fundamental rights’: Lawyers, political experts in disbelief over SC’s decision to strip PTI of its electoral symbol.” Dawn, 14 January 2024, https://www.dawn.com/news/1805562. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[7] Chen, Heather, and Sophia Saifi. “Pakistan releases official election results, independents affiliated with Khan’s PTI secure most seats.” CNN, 11 February 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/10/asia/pakistan-election-results-released-intl-hnk/index.html. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[8] Dawn. “Election 2024 – DAWN.COM.” Dawn, 2024, https://www.dawn.com/elections-2024/. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[9] Shahid, Ariba. “Pakistan election 2024: How does it work?” Reuters, 7 February 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-do-national-elections-pakistan-work-2024-02-06/. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[10] Syed, Azaz, et al. “Pakistan’s major parties formally announce ruling coalition that keeps Imran Khan shut out.” CNN, 21 February 2024, https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/asia/pakistan-announce-coalition-government-intl-hnk/index.html. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[11] Seddon, Sean, and Farhat Javed. “Pakistan election: PMLN and PPP reach agreement on coalition government.” BBC, 20 February 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68354256. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[12] BBC News. “Pakistan: Shehbaz Sharif wins second term as prime minister.” BBC, 3 March 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-68462846. Accessed 4 March 2024.
[13] Al Jazeera. “Pakistan government deal agreed despite opposition from Imran Khan’s PTI.” Al Jazeera, 20 February 2024, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/20/pakistan-government-deal-agreed-despite-opposition-from-imran-khans-pti. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[14] Goldbaum, Christina. “An Election Shatters the Image of Pakistan’s Mightiest Force.” The New York Times, 21 February 2024, https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/21/world/asia/pakistan-military-election.html. Accessed 24 February 2024.
[Cover Image] Photo by Hamid Roshaan licensed under Unsplash
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