By Gustav Graner.

Last month’s annual BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia highlighted the failure of the Western world to isolate Russia from the international scene, but also the tightrope many nations are walking when it comes to maintaining relations with both the West and East [1]. 

The summit followed last year’s gathering in South Africa, where Putin chose not to attend because the host nation is a signatory of the Rome Statute [2]. This treaty established the International Criminal Court (ICC) and granted it jurisdiction over four main crimes. Said court has the mandate to try individuals, and issued an arrest warrant for the Russian leader [3]. Hence, locating the meeting in Russia this year is a provocation towards the West, which through all its efforts clearly has not managed to keep Russia off the geopolitical scene.

However, having the summit with Russia, as well as the inclusion of sworn enemies of the West such as Iranian president Masoud Pezeshikan, have made geopolitical life harder for some nations [4]. These nations walk a tightrope in balancing relations with multiple, increasingly polarized major players in geopolitics. Nations aiming to maintain positive relations with all sides; akin to those that, during the Cold War, chose not to pick sides between the US and USSR. Many of these belong to BRICS, founded in 2009, to reduce reliance on the US dollar as the de facto world trading currency [5].

One such nation is South Africa. Their balancing act became obvious at last year’s BRICS summit, and has continued with their newly elected coalition government [6]. Recently, as an example, the government’s home affairs minister described Ukraine as a “valued ally and friend”[7]. In contrast, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa warmly embraced Putin during the BRICS meeting, describing Russia as a ‘valued ally’ of South Africa [7]. These two statements of support to two nations in war show an unwillingness to pick sides. 

Also in other questions, such as the Israel-Palestine conflict, South Africa shows that their “solid” ties with the US does not define its geopolitics [8]. Whilst the US remains a big supporter of Israel and it’s actions to defeat the terror-organisation Hamas, South Africa was the first nation to file a complain against Israel with the International Court of Justice last year, accusing Israel of genocide [9]. Since then, 14 other nations have joined, South Africa stands firm in their accusation, and the US are still on the opposing side, supporting Israel [9].

Another nation which is balancing this tightrope is India. A nation that has grown steadily in the last few years, recently became the world’s most populated country, and achieved feats like landing the first vehicle on the Moon’s south pole.

As one of the founders of BRICS, India has a deep-seated will and interest in developing a global currency alternative to the US dollar, as well as good relations with Russia. So good that Prime Minister Modi did not only travel to Russia for last week’s summit, but also had a private audience with Putin in July, in Russia [10]. Moreover, India has increased its import of Russian oil by 12% in 2024 compared to 2023, to become the largest importer of Russian oil in the world [11]. Russia is not the only nation which India has tried to improve relations with. After frosty relations between India and China for the last few years, partly due to border disputes, Xi Jinping and Modi held their first bilateral talk in five years whilst they both were in Kazan [12]. 

On the other hand, just about a month before attending the BRICS summit in Kazan, PM Modi traveled to Delaware, USA, for the annual QUAD meeting [13]. The QUAD is an organisation including the US, India, Australia and Japan, which after its formal creation in 2004/2005, has had an informal goal of stopping Chinese expansion in East Asia [14]. The Indian leader held bilateral talks with both the US president and the Ukrainian president within the last 3 months [15]. 

Historically, this approach of non-alignment is consistent with India’s geopolitics. During the cold war, following the second world war, India held the position of balancing relations with the US and the USSR for a multitude of reasons [16]. The difference this time is that, rather than remaining neutral, India appears to engage with all sides in the power struggles. For example, India is actively trying to replace the dollar –strongly against the US interest– while trying to limit China’s control in East Asia, –against China’s interest–. This type of non-alignment is one that is increasingly difficult to navigate. Regarding Russia and Ukraine, International Relations professor Julka, at Ashoka University, further supports the thesis of playing all sides by stating that the reason for bilateral meetings with both Russia and Ukraine is that “While it enjoys close ties with Russia, India does not want to alienate the west” [15].

All in all, it is clear that there are a decent number of nations, India being the most significant among them, trying to play the role of diplomats and friends of all in an increasingly multipolar geopolitical landscape. These non-aligned countries should provide hope as nations who do not try to divide, but unite. However, as global divisions deepen, maintaining good relations with all sides of the global power struggle becomes more difficult, with each side increasingly wary of non-commitment. The question is if these nations will be able to bridge the gap between the different poles before the entrenchment becomes too deep, or if they won’t, hence putting themselves in the crossfire building up to a major conflict.

Edited by Justine Peries.

References

[1] “BRICS Summit 2024: Expanding an Alternative.” Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/councilofcouncils/global-memos/brics-summit-2024-expanding-alternative. Accessed November 9, 2024.

[2] “How the Court Works.” International Criminal Court. https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works. Accessed November 9, 2024.

[3] “South Africa’s Ramaphosa Responds to Putin Arrest Warrant.” AP News, August 2024. https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-ramaphosa-putin-arrest-warrant-c62b4be0fd177d827214199cb60db98f. Accessed November 2, 2024.

[4] “Russia’s BRICS Summit: What’s on the Agenda and Why Does it Matter?” Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/22/russias-brics-summit-whats-on-the-agenda-and-why-does-it-matter. Accessed November 9, 2024.

[5] “What Is the BRICS Group and Why Is It Expanding?” Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-brics-group-and-why-it-expanding. Accessed November 10, 2024.

[6] “South Africa Announces New Government with Opposition Getting 12 Ministries.” Le Monde. https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/07/01/south-africa-announces-new-government-with-opposition-getting-12-ministries_6676253_4.html. Accessed November 9, 2024.

[7] “Ukraine Exposes Divisions in South Africa’s Unity Government.” DW, 2024. https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-throws-up-cracks-in-south-africas-unity-government/a-70648424. Accessed November 2, 2024.

[8] “U.S.-South Africa Relations.” U.S. Department of State. https://2017-2021.state.gov/countries-areas/south-africa/#:~:text=to%20South%20Africa-,U.S.%2DSouth%20Africa%20Relations,%2C%20environment%2C%20and%20digital%20economy. Accessed November 10, 2024.

[9] “South Africa vs Israel: 14 Other Countries Intend to Join the ICJ Case.” United Nations Regional Information Centre. https://unric.org/en/south-africa-vs-israel-14-other-countries-intend-to-join-the-icj-case/. Accessed November 10, 2024.

[10] “Joint Statement Following the 22nd India-Russia Annual Summit.” Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, 2024.https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/37940/Joint+Statement+following+the+22nd+IndiaRussia+Annual+Summit. Accessed November 2, 2024.

[11] “India Surpasses China to Become Russia’s Top Oil Buyer in July.” Reuters, August 22, 2024. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/india-surpasses-china-become-russias-top-oil-buyer-july-2024-08-22/. Accessed November 5, 2024.

[12] “Has India Made Friends with China after the Modi-Xi Agreement?” Brookings, 2024. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/has-india-made-friends-with-china-after-the-modi-xi-agreement/. Accessed November 5, 2024.

[13] “Fact Sheet: 2024 Quad Leaders’ Summit.” U.S. Embassy in India, 2024. https://in.usembassy.gov/fact-sheet-2024-quad-leaders-summit/. Accessed November 1, 2024.

[14] “Why the Quad Alarms China.” Asia Society. https://asiasociety.org/magazine/article/why-quad-alarms-china. Accessed November 9, 2024.

[15] “India: Narendra Modi, Ukraine, and Russia.” DW. https://www.dw.com/en/india-narendra-modi-ukraine-russia/a-69992108. Accessed November 9, 2024.

[16] Posel, Deborah. “The Trials of Apartheid: Some Reflections on the South African Truth and Reconciliation Commission.” JSTOR. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4395968?read-now=1&seq=2#page_scan_tab_contents. Accessed November 10, 2024.

[Cover Image] “Low Angle Photo Grayscale of Person Tightrope Walking.”, https://www.pexels.com/photo/low-angle-photo-grayscale-of-person-tightrope-walking-2225771/,  by Marcelo Moreira (https://www.pexels.com/@marcelo-moreira-988124/) licenced by Pexels.