By Gustav Graner.

The Armenian and Azerbaijani conflict over disputed territory Nagorno-Karabakh goes back decades and, during a period of many international conflicts, experts at the end of 2023 pointed it out as one of the most likely to escalate into war in 2024. Fortunately, it did not. However, no peace agreement has yet been signed. So, what can we expect to happen in 2025?

History behind the Conflict 

Armenia and Azerbaijan are countries which have a somewhat similar history. They have both been fought and ruled over by many different empires throughout history: the Persians and the Ottomans, before ending up under Russian rule going into the Russian revolution [1]. In the years following the revolution they were both independent for a short period, which notably also marked the first unification of Occidental (Western) Armenia, which had long been under Ottoman rule, and Oriental (Eastern) Armenia, which had been under Russian control. Independence was however short lived as Armenia and Azerbaijan both soon fell under the rule of The Soviet Union. First, as the “Transcaucasian Soviet Socialist Republic”, and after 1936, as their own nations, up until the fall of the Soviet Union in 1990, when they again gained full independence [2]. 

However, as unifying their comparable histories can seem, behind the Armeni-Azerbajiani relationship lies the remanents of the Armenian genocide in the early parts of the 20th century. The genocide was carried out foremost by the Ottoman Empire following many decades of tension in the south caucauses, and led to more than 1.5 million Armenian deaths within just a few years. The genocide is now widely recognized, but not unanimously: the UN recognizes it but Turkey refuse acknowledge it [3]. Azerbaijan, a close ally to Turkey, follow suit and is one of the worlds only countries to deny that this genocide ever even took place, serving as a thorn in the side of the Armenian people [4]. 

The conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh, the region at the heart of today’s tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, commenced when the area was placed under Azerbaidjani rule by the Soviet Union, despite a majority of ethnic Armenians having lived there since the late 19th century. It was dubbed as an ‘autonomous oblast’, it being an area of a country with a degree of autonomy [5]. To some Armenians this felt like a continuation of the previous genocide and discrimination they had gone through; denying Armenians land which thye believed they had a historical right to. 

When both countries were moving towards independence, the conflict over the region really blossomed up. And when independence came, so did war, led by Armenian separatists within the region, resulting in 30,000 casualties before a cease-fire in 1994 [6]. This cease-fire gave Armenia the region, as well as surrounding areas, and would last until 2020 when Armenia lost control of most of the captured regions after Azerbaijan initiated combat this time around. The conflict killed thousands of soldiers on each side. In 2023, the Azerbaijanis launched another military offensive, finally capturing all of the territory and proclaiming it as their own, causing almost all of the ethnic Armenians to flee back to Armenia [7]. This defeat also led to the president of the internationally unrecognized “Republic of Artsakh”, which Nagorno-Karabakh had independently called itself since 2017, to definitively sign its dissolution [8].

What was the relationship, situation and expectations a year ago?

Following the military interventions of Azerbaijan, the relationship between the countries grew sour. The Armenian president for example called for the Azerbaijan actions to be classified as ethnic cleansing, whilst there was speculation that Putin might intervene in Armenia to change leadership, due to the country’s pro-european sentiment [9]. The fear was that a single misstep might cause a fragile relationship to end up in all-out-war. This could have been especially disastrous considering the very close ties between Azerbaijan and Turkey, the friendly relationship between Armenia and the West, as well as Russia’s expected involvement, if an all-out war between the two countries were to break out. 

However there was also hope at the end of 2024 of peace throughout the region. Both the Armenian and Azerbaijan presidents expressed a willingness to end the more than 30 years long dispute. As a promising sign of their intentions to make peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan brokered a prisoner exchange at the end of December 2023. Included in this deal was that Armenia sponsored the bid for Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to host COP 29 in 2024, which it did [9]. This agreement was historic, as it was the first such agreement between the nations with no third party involved, being cause for celebration and cautious optimism entering 2024. 

Evolution in Armenia-Azerbaijan relations during 2024

The new year started off with more promising signs over potential peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The Armenian president stated in a speech that Armenians must make a distinction between the “historical and the real Armenia”, possibly to be interpreted as an urge to accept that whilst Nagorno-Karabakh used to be home to Armenians, it can no longer be so [10]. Even more, Turkish, Azerbaijan and Armenia spokespeople all met together at their shared border cross-point for the first time in history, and in Kazan during October the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan met and collectively expressed their desire for a settlement in the near future [11]. 

However, though signs were encouraging, in the last few months of 2024 the tensions increased once more, showing the fragility of the peace talks but also highlighting that no action taken during the year has been more than diplomatic gestures. Since Armenia refused to send even a small delegation to COP 29, a conference which initially was hoped to bring together the nations, the heat has turned up. Armenian international organizations have attacked the Azerbaijani human rights record continuously, the Armenian parliament has suggested more bullish approaches to the relations, and the Azerbaijani president has responded by calling Armenia “a fascist state in its nature” [11],[12]. 

All in all, though war did not break out, the relations between the nations have arguably weakened from the point we found them in a year ago. 

What to expect for 2025

Going into 2025 there is much uncertainty in what the road is forward for the region. On the reassuring side, the current leaders of the two nations seem to be able to live with each other. They have a relationship and they have shown no inclination for wanting and escalation of the conflict. On the other side, the presidential elections in Armenia are coming up in 2026, and the criticism for sitting president Mr. Pashinyan being too weak in the relations with Azerbaijan have been mounting [13]. As subtle campaigning is expected to begin from Pahinyan in mid-2025, it is possible to expect him to take a harder stance on Azerbaijan around this time to please voters. Hopefully there can be a diplomatic push before then. It is in the best interests of peace to have a solid resolution done before campaigning starts.   

Recent developments have made relations evermore complex. On February 13, 2025, as an example, Azerbaijan filed a lawsuit against Armenia in the Permanent Court of Arbitration, accusing Armenia of environmental damage in regions previously controlled by Armenian forces [14]. Such action showcases the persisting tensions between the nations, even through the pursuit of a lasting peace. Additionally, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called for a referendum to adopt a new constitution, aiming to further address national sovereignty and stability ahead of the 2026 elections [15]. As 2025 unfolds, the delicate balance between diplomacy and the potential for renewed conflict will be key in shaping the future of the region.

Another factor to consider within the constraints of a peace resolution is President  Trump. There have been speculation and theorising that if the promised peace in Ukraine proves too big of a task, the soon-to-be president will turn his eyes to the South Caucasus to find diplomatic success [16]. Nonetheless, it will be an important year for the mountainous region south of Russia and on the brink of Europe.

Edited by Justine Dukmedjian and Justine Peries.

References

[1] “Armenia.” U.S. Department of State, Office of the Historian. https://history.state.gov/countries/armenia. Accessed January 9, 2025.

[2] “History of Armenia.” Advantour. https://www.advantour.com/armenia/history.htm. Accessed January 9, 2025.

[3] “Notion de Génocide.” Réseau Canopé. https://www.reseau-canope.fr/fileadmin/user_upload/user_upload/notion_genocide.pdf. Accessed March 11, 2025.

[4] “A Brief History of the Armenian Genocide.” The Genocide Education Project. https://genocideeducation.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/A-Brief-History-of-the-Armenian-Genocide.pdf. Accessed March 11, 2025.

[5] “Armenia Profile.” BBC News, March 5, 2012. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-17398605. Accessed January 9, 2025.

[6] “Scars of Nagorno-Karabakh.” International Committee of the Red Cross. https://www.icrc.org/sites/default/files/external/doc/fr/assets/files/other/scars-nagorno-karabagh.pdf. Accessed January 10, 2025.

[7] “Armenia.” Central Intelligence Agency, The World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/armenia/. Accessed January 12, 2025.

[8] “Nagorno-Karabakh Separatist Government Says Dissolve.” The Guardian, September 28, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/28/nagorno-karabakh-separatist-government-says-dissolve-azerbaijan-armenia. Accessed January 19, 2025.

[9] “Azerbaijan Close to Peace Agreement with Armenia, Officials Say.” The Guardian, December 27, 2023. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/27/azerbaijan-close-to-peace-agreement-with-armenia-officials-say. Accessed January 12, 2025.

[10] “Armenia: The Struggle for Sovereignty.” Hetq, December 3, 2023. https://hetq.am/en/article/165645. Accessed January 13, 2025.

[11] “COP 29: Hope for Breakthrough with Azerbaijan Dims as Armenia a No-Show.” Balcanicaucaso, December 1, 2023. https://www.balcanicaucaso.org/eng/Areas/Armenia/COP-29-hope-for-breakthrough-with-Azerbaijan-dims-as-Armenia-a-no-show-234490. Accessed January 10, 2025.

[12] “Armenia’s Pashinyan Accuses Azerbaijan of Fascism.” Politico, February 28, 2023. https://www.politico.eu/article/armenia-nikol-pashinyan-azerbaijan-ilham-aliyev-fascism-accusation-tensions/. Accessed January 15, 2025.

[13] “Seizing the Moment: Armenia and Azerbaijan at a Crossroads.” War on the Rocks, December 12, 2024. https://warontherocks.com/2024/12/seizing-the-moment-armenia-and-azerbaijan-at-a-crossroads/. Accessed January 16, 2025.

[14] “Azerbaijan Sues Armenia in Hague Arbitration Court for Environmental Damage.” Reuters, February 13, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/azerbaijan-sues-armenia-hague-arbitration-court-environmental-damage-2025-02-13/. Accessed February 27, 2025.

[15] “Armenian PM Calls for Referendum on New Constitution.” Reuters, February 19, 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/armenian-pm-calls-referendum-new-constitution-2025-02-19/. Accessed February 27, 2025.

[16] “A Golden Opportunity for Trump to Make Peace between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey.” The Wall Street Journal, December 10, 2024. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/a-golden-opportunity-for-trump-to-make-peace-armenia-azerbaijan-turkey-ac0ccd1e. Accessed January 16, 2025.

[Cover Image] Photo of “Azerbaijan National Flag Waving in Baku”(https://www.pexels.com/photo/azerbaijan-national-flag-waving-in-baku-30268242/)  in Baku by Mihman Duganli (https://www.pexels.com/@mihmanduganli/) licensed under Pexels.