By Federico Galanti.
For decades, Europe aligned its foreign policy with the US, assuming shared interests and a reliable partnership. But recent events—from Trump’s ‘America First’ to the war in Ukraine—have shattered that illusion. Europe is now forced to confront a new reality: its strategic future may depend on distancing itself from Washington.
A Legacy of Dependence
After World War II, the US became Europe’s key security provider, enshrined in NATO and economic programmes like the Marshall Plan [1]. During the Cold War, this dependency deepened—over 400,000 US troops were stationed on European soil at its peak [2]. Even after the Soviet Union’s collapse, Europe aligned with US foreign policy, supporting interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya [3]. Beyond security, deep trade and investment ties reinforced cooperation [4].
The Trump Shock
Donald Trump’s presidency in 2017 unsettled European capitals. He questioned NATO, imposed tariffs on EU goods, and withdrew from global agreements [5]. At the 2018 NATO summit, he criticised European allies for low defence spending and hinted at scaling down US commitments [6]. At the time, only four NATO countries met the 2% GDP defence target: the US (3.6%), Greece (2.4%), the UK (2.1%), and Poland (2.0%) [7]. Leaders like Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron responded by declaring Europe must take its destiny into its own hands [8].
The Ukraine War: A Wake-Up Call
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine exposed Europe’s military unpreparedness. The US at first led the response, providing 71% of all Western aid—over $130 billion [9][10]. Europe, long reliant on US support, had underinvested in its own defence. In response, Germany announced its ‘Zeitenwende’ shift [11], and by 2024, NATO allies in Europe spent over $380 billion—2% of combined GDP—for the first time [12]. Despite this shift, NATO remains the core framework, and autonomy is still in development.
The war also marked a broader realisation: Europe could not afford to take US backing for granted. As new security challenges arise, relying solely on American leadership appears increasingly risky.
The US Pivot to Asia and European Insecurity
Since Obama, the US has prioritised countering China, shifting focus away from Europe [13]. Trump accelerated this pivot, and Biden continued the emphasis on China as the main geopolitical rival [14]. European leaders worry: will the US stay committed to the continent, or increasingly deprioritise it in favour of Indo-Pacific strategy?
This strategic reorientation is particularly concerning for countries along NATO’s eastern flank. They see a potential power vacuum that Europe alone may not yet be equipped to fill.
Energy Dependence and Economic Tensions
Before 2022, 40% of EU gas came from Russia [15]. The Ukraine war forced a sudden break from this reliance, triggering an energy crisis. Europe turned to American LNG as a replacement [16], highlighting its vulnerability to external suppliers.
Simultaneously, the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) sparked EU concerns. With $369 billion in green tech subsidies [17], fears grew of European industry moving stateside [18]. These tensions reignited calls for ‘strategic autonomy’ in critical sectors [19]. Europe’s economic vulnerability thus mirrors its military one—both shaped by dependence on Washington.
Can Europe Truly Distance Itself?
Calls for European ‘strategic autonomy,’ led by Macron [20], have driven defence initiatives like the European Defence Fund and the Strategic Compass [21]. But internal divisions remain: eastern EU states, especially Poland and the Baltics, rely on US backing and oppose weakening NATO [22].
Meanwhile, France has proposed extending its nuclear umbrella to EU allies, in case the US withdraws its own [23]—a bold step toward autonomy, though still more symbolic than structural.
Still, Europe lacks the full military and economic heft to go it alone. The Ukraine war reaffirmed American primacy in European defence. A complete break is unlikely—and undesirable—in the short term. Nonetheless, the language of dependency is beginning to shift.
A Shift Already Underway
Europe is no longer just debating autonomy—it is building it. The €800bn EU Defence Fund agreement signals a firm shift. More symbolically, German arms giant Rheinmetall recently overtook Volkswagen in value [24]. For a continent once defined by peace and industry, this marks a dramatic change.
While Europe isn’t faultless—its short-sighted ties to Russia and China played a role—the deepest rupture came from Trump-era Washington. His administration destabilised assumptions that had long governed transatlantic cooperation.
Europe’s wake-up call is no longer a theoretical warning but a lived geopolitical earthquake. The challenge ahead lies in crafting a balanced partnership, one that reflects mutual respect rather than habitual dependence. So the question now isn’t whether Europe will act. It’s: is the transatlantic relationship past repair?
Edited by Maxime Pierre and Justine Peries.
References
[1]. NATO, “NATO – Declassified: The Marshall Plan,” NATO.
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/declassified_138294.htm
[2]. Statista, “U.S. troops in Europe 2021,” 2021.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1294309/us-troops-europe/
[3]. EEAS Europa, “Foreign interventions and the future of European defence”, August 2028.
[4]. European Commission, “EU trade relations with United States,” 2023.
[5]. Reuters, “Trump says NATO is obsolete but still ‘very important to me’,” January 2017.
https://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSKBN14Z0YP
[6]. CNN, “Trump opens NATO summit with blistering criticism of Germany, labels allies ‘delinquent’”July 2018.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/10/politics/donald-trump-nato-summit-2018/index.html
[7]. World Population Review, “NATO Spending by Country 2025,” 2025.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/nato-spending-by-country
[8]. The Guardian, “Angela Merkel: EU cannot completely rely on US and Britain any more,” May 2017.
[9]. The Economist, “Can Europe confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on its own?,” February 2025.
[10]. USAFacts, “How much money has the US given Ukraine since Russia’s invasion?,” March 2025.
https://usafacts.org/articles/how-much-money-has-the-us-given-ukraine-since-russias-invasion/
[11]. Financial Times, “Germany’s bold policy shift remains a work in progress,” February 2023.
https://www.ft.com/content/d1ab1c9e-746f-4122-b86f-0ea95f5c05bc
[12]. Al Jazeera, “Defence spending boost to see 18 NATO members hit target in 2024,” February 2024.
[13]. Foreign Policy, “The Rise and Fall of the Economic Pivot to Asia,” August 2024.
[14]. The White House, “National Security Strategy,” October 2022.
[15]. European Commission, “EU imports of energy products – latest developments,” 2024.
[16]. Shale Magazine, “U.S. LNG Exports to Europe Sets Record” February 2025.
[17]. Politico, “EU shrugs off threat from US Inflation Reduction Act — for now” August 2023.
[18]. European Parliament, “EU’s response to the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)” June 2023.
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/IPOL_IDA(2023)740087
[19]. Istituto Affari Internazionali, “European strategic autonomy: what it is, why we need it, how to achieve it,” July 2023.
[20]. USNI News, “French President Macron Calls For European ‘Strategic Autonomy’, February 2021.
https://news.usni.org/2021/02/08/french-president-macron-calls-for-european-strategic-autonomy
[21]. Fondation Robert Schuman, “Has the time come for European defence” April 2024.
https://www.robert-schuman.eu/en/european-issues/743-has-the-time-come-for-european-defence
[22]. Atlantic Council, “The EU Strategic Autonomy:Central and Eastern European Perspectives” June 2021.
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2023/08/10/eastern-eu-states-resist-calls-for-strategic-autonomy
[23]. The Guardian, “Macron open to extending France’s nuclear umbrella to European allies as US reconsiders Ukraine funding – as it happened”, March 2025.
[24]. Politico, “German defense giant Rheinmetall overtakes VW valuation” March 2025.
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-defense-rheinmetall-vw-volkswagen-valuation/
[25]. [cover image] Photo by Marek Studzinki, 2022, Un tas de boutons avec des drapeaux dessus photo – Image gratuite de Logo sur Unsplash. Licensed under Unsplash (https://unsplash.com/fr).
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