By Félix Dubé

Water, the source of all life, is essential for survival. From the tiniest nanobes to the largest mammals, all living beings depend on it to live and thrive.
For humans, water is indispensable for every activity – from agriculture and electricity production to microprocessor manufacturing. From the founding of Mesopotamia on the banks of the Tigris and Euphrates to the settlements on the Yangtze that evolved into China, water has cradled all civilizations.
Its centrality to human existence cannot be overstated.

Water as a Weapon of War

Given its importance – and the belligerent nature of mankind – water has historically been used as a weapon in conflicts.
In ancient wars, it was a vector for poisoning or a means of flooding the enemy. It could also be turned into a strategic asset by functioning as a natural menace. One striking case occurred in 416 BC, when Hermocrates, a Syracusan general, forced the Athenians to remain in a malaria-infested plain near Syracuse, leading to their defeat [1].

After the ratification of the Geneva Conventions and the recognition of the human right to access water, one might have expected the use of water as a weapon to decline. That assumption could not have been more wrong.
In Iraq and Syria, the Islamic State manipulated dams to divert rivers, creating droughts, unleashing floods – such as submerging the town of Abu Ghraib under four meters of water –  and contaminated water supplies [2].

Similarly, in 2014, after Russia annexed Crimea, Ukraine blocked the North Crimean Canal, cutting water supplies by 80% [3]. Once war erupted in 2022, Russia destroyed this dam, but water continued to play a role in the conflict: in late February 2022, the Ukraine military intentionally flooded lands north of the capital, Kyiv, by destroying a hydraulic structure near Kazarovichi village. This led to the inundation of the floodplain of the Irpin River with water from the Kyivski Reservoir, helping to stop a Russian armored assault [4].

Water is not only a strategic tool in armed conflicts but also an untraceable weapon of mass destruction and genocide. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that a person needs 50 to 100 liters of water daily to meet their most basic needs. In case of  protracted emergency situations, the amount of water needed per person can fall down to as little as 15 liters. Yet measures imposed by Israeli authorities have deprived most of Gaza’s population of this essential resource, leaving them with only 2 to 9 liters per day for drinking, cooking, and washing. The lack of clean water has fueled the spread of diseases such as watery diarrhea and skin conditions like scabies [5].

Water has also become a political weapon. In the 1990s, Turkey exploited its control over the Euphrates and Tigris rivers through major dam projects to pressure Syria into halting support for the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) [6]. This tactic amounted to hydraulic blackmail.

Water as a Source of War

As water grows increasingly scarce, access to it will not only be weaponized but will also drive new wars. CNA (Center of Naval Analysis) predicts such conflicts will fall into four main categories: civilian unrest and riots born of frustration; localized regional, ethnic, or communal violence; increased terrorism with potential to escalate into civil war; and interstate conflict, both political and conventional [7].

The Pacific Institute’s Water Conflict Chronology reported that violent incidents linked to water rose dramatically in 2023. These events included attacks on water systems, unrest and disputes over access, and the deliberate use of water as a weapon of war. The report documented 347 such incidents in 2023 compared to 231 in 2022 — a 50% increase. By contrast, only 22 incidents were recorded in 2000 [8].

This surge is not surprising, given that a quarter of the world’s population faces extreme water stress each year and around 4 billion people experience severe water scarcity for at least part of the year. With demand expected to outstrip the supply of freshwater by 40% by the end of this decade, conflicts over water will only intensify [9].

Signs of potential State-on-State clashes have already emerged, particularly between the two nuclear powers sharing the Indus River, India and Pakistan (read the article here). The 1960 Indus Water Treaty – which has survived three wars – governs the distribution of six major Indus Basin rivers: Pakistan controls the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab basins, while India controls the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej basins. Recently, India has considered renegotiating the treaty to its advantage. As the upstream power, India would have the upper hand — a move Pakistan strongly opposes, warning it would be treated as a declaration of war. Rising demographic pressure, intensive agriculture, rapid industrialization, and accelerating urbanization only heighten the importance of the Indus, on which Pakistan depends for 80% of its irrigated agriculture [10].

Tensions escalated further after the April 22 terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which killed 26 tourists. In response, India suspended the treaty, citing national security concerns and accusing Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism. This was the first disruption in the treaty’s history — one long praised for its resilience. Some global publications have even warned that disputes over the Indus could spark a third world war [11].

Water is increasingly compared to oil in its strategic value. We now speak of “water-rich countries” — such as Canada, Chile, and Norway — when they possess it in abundance. Even the world’s most powerful nations are not indifferent to this struggle. During his presidency, Donald Trump repeatedly suggested diverting water from Lake Huron to irrigate Arizona and even threatened to abandon the 1908 agreement on the distribution of Great Lakes water. These lakes, containing one-fifth of the world’s surface freshwater, are of growing importance to a United States grappling with worsening drought [12].

These are only a few of dozens of ongoing conflicts worldwide involving water: Yemen and Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Ethiopia, Syria and Iraq.

For now, the effects of water on warfare are only the tip of the iceberg. Its growing scarcity will not only ignite conflicts across the globe but also multiply the use of water as a weapon of deprivation.

So what can be done in the face of such a possibility? Will we face the outbreak of hundreds of wars and the waves of migration they will unleash? The challenge seems so immense that no solution feels sufficient. The main responsibility lies with international law, agreements between States, and above all with global cooperation. Yet we, as individuals, can and must address the problem at its source: by striving not to exhaust it. By conserving water and using it responsibly, daily actions of conservation are going to be the cornerstone of minimizing a looming water crisis.

Edited by Justine Dukmedjian.

References

[1] Prof. François Renaud (2018, 23 April). Water: a weapon used in ancient times (BCRNe)

[2] Tobias von Lossow ( 2019, January). Water as Weapon: IS on the Euphrates and Tigris https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/2016C03_lsw.pdf

[3] Sharon Udasin (2022, 03 December). How a Ukrainian dam played a key role in tensions with Russia https://thehill.com/policy/equilibrium-sustainability/597910-how-a-ukrainian-dam-played-a-key-role-in-tensions-with/ (The Hill) 

[4] Pacific Institute: Water Conflicts Chronology https://www.worldwater.org/conflict/list/ (Pacific Institute)

[5]Niku Jafarnia (2024, 19 December). Extermination and Acts of Genocide Israel Deliberately Depriving Palestinians in Gaza of Water https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/12/19/extermination-and-acts-genocide/israel-deliberately-depriving-palestinians-gaza (Human Rights Watch)

[6]Mahmut Sansarkan (2023, 20 June). Türkiye: Water is used as a weapon against Kurdish people in south-eastern Anatolia https://minorityrights.org/resources/trends2023-water-justice-and-the-struggles-of-minorities-and-indigenous-peoples-for-water-rights-a-planetary-perspective-20/ (Minority Right Group)

[7] CNA (2017, December) The Role of Water Stress in Instability and Conflict https://www.cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/crm-2017-u-016532-final.pdf

[8]  Pacific Institute.  Announcement: 2023 Was a Record Year for Violence Over Water Resources Across the Globe https://pacinst.org/announcement/2023-was-a-record-year-for-violence-over-water-resources-across-the-globe/ (Pacific Institute)

[9] Fiona Harvey (2023, 17 March) Global fresh water demand will outstrip supply by 40% by 2030, say experts https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/mar/17/global-fresh-water-demand-outstrip-supply-by-2030 (The Guardian)

[10] Tarique Niazi (2025, 06 June) Waters of Geopolitics: Why Is the Indus River System So Violently Contested? https://fpif.org/waters-of-geopolitics-why-is-the-indus-river-system-so-violently-contested/ (Foreign Policy in Focus)

[11]Roland Oliphant (2025, 25 April) The most dangerous river in the world: Why the Indus could spark WWIII https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/04/25/most-dangerous-river-world-why-indus-spark-ww2/?ICID=continue_without_subscribing_reg_first (The Telegraph)

[12] France 24 Staff (2025, 09 April). Près des Grands Lacs, les menaces de Trump sur l’eau au coeur de la campagne électorale canadienne https://www.france24.com/fr/info-en-continu/20250409-pr%C3%A8s-des-grands-lacs-les-menaces-de-trump-sur-l-eau-au-coeur-de-la-campagne-%C3%A9lectorale-canadienne (France 24)

[Cover image] Picture by Nilov Mikhail

(https://www.pexels.com/photo/bird-s-eye-view-photo-of-waves-crashing-in-the-sea-6964961/). Licensed under Pexels (https://www.pexels.com/license/).