Geographical Disparities in Ukraine’s Aid

By Tomas Chambourdon.

First and foremost, it is important to make a few distinctions and clarifications when discussing “aid to Ukraine.” We have decided to retain the Kiel Institute “Ukraine Support Tracker” [1] [2] classification, which subdivides the amount of aid into three categories: Military, Financial, and Humanitarian [1], allowing for comparison by allocating a dollar amount for each aid package. There is also a need for correct geographical distinctions, especially in Europe, where some packages were sent directly from the States and others from European Institutions.

This article aims to comprehensively present the amount of military aid sent to Ukraine and analyze the disparities between the U.S. and Europe. In the Kiel Institute Report paper, Militarian aid is defined as such: “Military support includes all types of weapons and military equipment alongside items explicitly donated to the Ukrainian army (such as bottled water, gasoline, or foodstuff).” [1].

As an introduction, let’s restate some global facts: the total amount of commitments from January 2022 to January 2024 amounts to around €252 billion [2], above Ukraine’s 2021 GDP of €200.1 billion [3]. It comes mainly from E.U. Institutions and the E.U. individual States (€144 billion), followed by American aid (around €68 billion) [2]. 

1. Europe’s Packages for Military Aid

The overall support of both the EU Institutions and Member States is estimated at €33 billion [4].

At the EU Institutions level, this is done through the European Peace Facility (an off-budget fund intended for the reimbursement of member countries for lethal and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine. [1]), with €11.1 billion mobilized into three main parts:

• Seven sets of assistance (~ €3.5 billion) for around €500 million each
• The Ukraine Assistance Fund (€5 billion): these are the additional funds that were unlocked and announced in March 2024 after difficult debates with the Hungarian government [5]. 

These two segments are used to reimburse bilateral aid (government-to-government, excluding EU Institutions level)

• Finally, a “three-track plan” [4] for ammunition and missiles, of which two (for a total amount of around €2 billion) were issued already. The first track (April 2023) was used to “reimburse member states for material donated to Ukraine” (5), the second (May 2023) to “support joint procurement of ammunition and missiles from economic operators established in the EU or Norway” [4]. The third track was adopted in July 2023, corresponding  to the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP, on this topic see [6]).

This latter is crucial, as many Ukrainians and NATO officials remind governments that the 27’s were not in measure to deliver the “million of shell ammunition committed to in Spring 2023, a quantity already largely insufficient” [7]. Ukraine’s allies are aware of this issue, and during the Prague Convention, France’s President Emmanuel Macron changed its credo. Previously strongly opposed to buying shell munitions produced outside of Europe, he changed his mind, and Europe has now started to buy these much-needed ammunitions from top-secret countries.

To conclude, on top of this EU Institutions’ aid, the European governments committed around €21.4 billion euros of their own budget [8]. The details of these shipments are rather opaque (on this topic see [9], France’s disagreement over Kiel Institute’s figures) and most of the time protected by secret-defense classifications, but the Kiel Institute allows us to visualize the amount of Government support to Ukraine [2]:

Source: Trebesch et al. (2023) “The Ukraine Support Tracker” Kiel WP

In its periodic report, the Kiel Institute informs us that European Countries provided around 50% of the Military commitments, and the United States of America alone provided around 40%.

2. US’ Packages for Military Aid

The US is by far the largest donor of military aid. The total amount pledged by the United States since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents €42.2 billion [2], 62% [10] of the total amount the US has committed (Militarian, Financial, and Humanitarian). This militarian aid can be subdivided into three main parts [10]:

Source: Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow, 23rd February, 2024, Council on Foreign Relations, How Much Aid Has the U.S. Sent Ukraine? Here Are Six Charts.

The US plays a crucial role in Ukraine’s war engine, and President Zelensky warned that [without further US aid] “It means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.” [11]. Ukrainian’s President is referring to the $60 billion package currently blocked in the House of Representatives, under a difficult election-context, where Republicans (holding the strategic position of Speaker of the House) want to see more of the funds diverted towards anti-immigration and border control measures. 

The package was first proposed in October 2023 by the Biden’s Administration, and later (February 2024) rejected by the Senate [12]. It involves around $40 billion of direct aid to Ukraine and more than $20 billion to replenish the US’ military stock “with weapons and equipment provided to Ukraine from Defense Department inventory.” [12].

3. Which path forward?

Ukraine’s allies show a common front regarding the objective of not letting Ukraine lose the war, but sometimes won’t agree on the means.  Republicans in the US and some far-right parties in Europe are calling for a halt in military aid, specifically on offensive equipment. On the other hand, some Head of Government such as France’s Emmanuel Macron called for “no red line” and promised to do whatever it takes, refusing to rule out the possibility of sending “troops” to Ukraine [13]. In a recent interview, Zelensky responded that there is no need for NATO’s troops but for ammunition [14], highlighting once again the situation on the battlefield, as well as NATO’s inability to produce (shell) ammunition in urgently needed quantities.

At a time when conflicts around the world are booming, the US election threatens to put an end to Ukrainian aid, and “Russia [is] producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine” [15]  it is urgent to reflect on two topics. How can NATO’s countries revive warfare production capabilities, doing so in a way that can be rapidly ramped-up in the case of another conflict, and how can Europe design an effective defense system that would not rely solely on the US?

Edited by Justine Peries.

References

[1] Christoph Trebesch, Arianna Antezza, Katelyn Bushnell, André Frank, Pascal Frank, Lukas Franz, Ivan Kharitonov, Bharath Kumar, Ekaterina Rebinskaya and Stefan Schramm. Kiel Institute, February 2023. The Ukraine Support Tracker: Which countries help Ukraine and how? https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/87bb7b0f-ed26-4240-8979-5e6601aea9e8-KWP_2218_Trebesch_et_al_Ukraine_Support_Tracker.pdf

[2] Kiel Institute, Ukraine Support Tracker. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/

[3] World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=UA

[4] Consilium, website of the European Council, 25th March, 2024. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/eu-response-ukraine-invasion/eu-solidarity-ukraine/#military

[5] Kateryna Denisova and The Kyiv Independent news desk, March 18, 2024. EU gives final approval to $5.5 billion for military aid to Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-gives-final-approval-to-5-5-billion-for-military-aid-to-ukraine-in-2024/#:~:text=EU%20foreign%20ministers%20finally%20agreed,Kuleba%20announced%20on%20March%2018.

[6] European Commission, 2024, ASAP Results – boosting ammunition production. https://defence-industry-space.ec.europa.eu/document/download/b694b109-fa2c-493e-bf1e-87768ae6469e_en?filename=ASAP%20factsheet.pdf

[7] :Nicolas Barotte. Le Figaro, 7th December 2023, L’Ukraine de plus en plus isolée face à la Russie. https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/l-ukraine-de-plus-en-plus-isolee-face-a-la-russie-20231207

[8] Boran Tobelem, Toute L’Europe.eu, 1st February, 2024, Guerre en Ukraine : quels sont les montants des aides de l’Union européenne depuis 2022 ? https://www.touteleurope.eu/l-ue-dans-le-monde/guerre-en-ukraine-quels-sont-les-montants-des-aides-de-l-union-europeenne-depuis-un-an/

[9] Laura Kayali, Clea Caulcutt AND Joshua Posaner, Politico.eu, 4th March, 2024, Under fire: France insists it’s no slacker on military aid to Ukraine. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-aid-france-strikes-back-and-publishes-weapons-data-macron-kiel-taurus-scalp/

[10] Jonathan Masters and Will Merrow, 23rd February, 2024, Council on Foreign Relations, How Much Aid Has the U.S. Sent Ukraine? Here Are Six Charts. https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-aid-has-us-sent-ukraine-here-are-six-charts

[11] Mariya Knight and Chris Lau, 29th March 2024, CNN, Ukraine faces retreat without US aid, Zelensky says. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/29/europe/ukraine-faces-retreat-without-us-aid-zelensky-says-intl-hnk/index.html

[12] Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, 16th February, 2024, The $60 Billion Aid Package Ukraine Is Waiting For. https://www.rferl.org/a/us-ukraine-aid-breakdown-timeline/32822804.html

[13] Euronews with Agencies, 27th February, 2024, Le chef de l’OTAN tempère les propos d’Emmanuel Macron sur l’envoi de troupes en Ukraine. https://fr.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/02/27/emmanuel-macron-nexclut-pas-lenvoi-de-troupes-occidentales-en-ukraine

[14] La Tribune.fr, 11th March 2024, Ukraine : « L’armée française peut rester sur le territoire français, l’avancée russe est stoppée», assure Volodymyr Zelensky. https://www.latribune.fr/economie/international/l-armee-francaise-peut-rester-sur-le-territoire-francais-

[15] Katie Bo Lillis, Natasha Bertrand, Oren Liebermann and Haley Britzky, CNN, 11th March 2024, Russia producing three times more artillery shells than US and Europe for Ukraine. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/10/politics/russia-artillery-shell-production-us-europe-ukraine/index.html#:~:text=Video-,Exclusive%3A%20Russia%20producing%20three%20times%20more%20artillery%20shells,US%20and%20Europe%20for%20Ukraine&text=Russia%20appears%20on%20track%20to,in%20Ukraine%20later%20this%20year.

[Cover Image] Photo by David Peinado, licensed under Pexels